Are Home Prices Dropping in San Jose? A Neighborhood-by-Neighborhood Breakdown

Headlines warn of cooling markets, but San Jose’s story is more nuanced. Yes, some metrics show slight summer dips, but prices remain historically high.

This article digs into the numbers—mean vs. median home prices, listing activity, and neighborhood differences—to answer: Are home prices really dropping in San Jose? By focusing on key ZIP codes (95123, 95120, 95138, 95014) and market indicators (pending, contingent, days on market), we’ll provide clarity and confidence for buyers, sellers, and investors.

1. Metro vs. Neighborhood Price Trends

1.1 Metro-Wide Snapshot

• Average Sale Price: $1.60 million (up 2% year-over-year)

• Median Sale Price: $1.45 million (down 1.5% from last June, reflecting a seasonal plateau)

• Five-Year Growth: +25% cumulative appreciation, or ~4.5% annually

1.2 Evergreen (95123)

• Median Price: $1.48 M (down 1% Y-O-Y; flat since spring)

• Average Price: $1.52 M (high-end ranch homes sustain the average)

• DOM: 13 days (vs. 11 last spring)

• Pending vs. Active: 70% of active homes are under contract—strong demand amid modest seasonal relaxation.

1.3 Almaden Valley (95120)

• Median Price: $1.55 M (flat Y-O-Y)

• Average Price: $1.60 M (luxury estates skew average upward)

• DOM: 11 days (steady through summer)

• Inventory: Active listings up 5%, but pending ratio holds at 85%.

1.4 Silver Creek (95138)

• Median Condo Price: $1.27 M (down 0.5% Y-O-Y)

• Average Price: $1.30 M (clubhouse renovations fueling interest)

• DOM: 12 days (slightly slower than spring’s 10 days)

• HOA Fees: $700–$750/month, a factor in buyer calculations.

1.5 Cupertino Corridors (95014)

• Median Price: $2.10 M (up 1% Y-O-Y; still strong in tech-driven demand)

• Average Price: $2.25 M

• DOM: 9 days, reflecting scarcity and school-driven premiums.

Key Point: While median prices show slight summer dips, averages remain elevated—luxury and tech-driven pockets continue upward momentum.

2. Supply & Demand Indicators

2.1 Active vs. Pending Listings

• Citywide Active: 1,250 homes (+8% since April)

• Citywide Pending: 980 (-3%)

• Implication: More choice for buyers—but serious buyers still convert viewings into contracts.

2.2 Contingent Listings

• Overall Contingent Rate: 12% (closely mirrors spring levels)

• Neighborhood Variance:

  • Evergreen: 14% contingent

  • Almaden: 10%

  • Silver Creek: 12%

Interpretation: Contingent deals remain common, showing buyers are comfortable moving forward under inspection or financing contingencies.

3. Seasonal Effects vs. Structural Trends

3.1 Summer Cooldown

• Traditional 1–3% dip after spring peaks—seen in median but offset by high-end sales that support the average.

• Longer daylight and summer vacations can delay listing activity in July–August.

3.2 Rate Sensitivity

• Current Mortgage Rate: ~5.25%

• Small downward corrections in May–June spurred a brief uptick in pending sales—buyers time rate locks.

3.3 Long-Term Fundamentals

• Tech Employment: Local job base remains robust, supporting housing demand.

• Inventory Pipeline: Few new single-family builds until 2026; ADU streamlining could add supply slowly.

Insight: Short-term dips are seasonal; true structural shifts require rate spikes or major job losses.

4. Buyer & Seller Strategies Now

4.1 For Buyers

• Target Median-Priced Homes: Look for 1–2% below spring peaks; submit strong offers with escalation clauses.

• Neighborhood Focus: Evergreen blocks near school zones with high sale-to-list ratios (102–105%) are resilient.

• Rate Lock Tactics: Monitor weekly rate feeds—lock when volatility dips 0.25%.

4.2 For Sellers

• Pricing Precision: Use data-driven comps and watch pending activity in your micro-neighborhood—price within 1% of last three sold homes.

• Marketing Boosts: Summer staging with evening light photos and dog-park proximity highlights can drive faster offers.

• Flexible Terms: Consider rent-back or extended close options to attract serious buyers.

5. Forecast & Conclusion

5.1 Near-Term Outlook

• Price Movement: Median prices may remain flat or tick up 1–2% by year-end as rates stabilize.

• Inventory: Active listings likely to hold at current levels—buyers have choice, sellers need precision.

5.2 Long-Term View

• Five-Year Projection: Continued 3–5% annual appreciation tied to tech growth and land scarcity.

• Policy Impact: ADU streamlining and upzoning proposals could modestly ease supply crunch by 2027.

Final Thought: If you’re weighing “Are San Jose home prices dropping?”—the answer is nuanced. Seasonally, median prices have softened slightly, but averages remain strong thanks to high-end sales and enduring demand. For buyers, this season’s slight cooling offers negotiation room; for sellers, precise pricing and marketing ensure you capitalize on pent-up demand. At Block Change Real Estate, we harness these data trends to guide your next move—whether buying, selling, or investing—so you act with confidence, not conjecture.