Are San Jose Home Prices Really Dropping? What the Data Shows in Evergreen, Almaden & Silver Creek

San Jose’s housing market feels like a roller coaster. Headlines claim prices are dropping, but is that true across every neighborhood? In this article, we sort fact from hype using key San Jose real estate data.

We’ll compare average vs. median home prices, examine pending vs. active listings, and explore neighborhood specifics—from Evergreen (95123) to Almaden, Silver Creek, and Creek Valley. Along the way, we’ll look at factors like ADUs, property taxes, buyer programs, and local amenities (dog parks, country clubs, schools) so you can decide whether to buy, sell, or hold.

1. Average vs. Median Home Prices: Why It Matters

When discussing home price trends, average and median figures tell different stories.

• Average Price adds all sale prices and divides by the number of sales. A handful of high-end sales can skew the average upward.

• Median Price is the middle sale price—half the homes sold above, half below. This offers a clearer view of the typical home.

In San Jose mid-2025, the average home sale price hovers around $1.6 million, up 1% year-over-year. The median price sits near $1.45 million, down 2% from last summer’s peak. This gap suggests that while luxury home sales remain strong, the bulk of the market is softening slightly.

How to apply: Look at both metrics. If you’re targeting a median-priced house in Evergreen, focus on median trends. For a high-end Silver Creek ranch or club-area property, consider the average.

2. Inventory Breakdown: Active vs. Pending vs. Contingent

Understanding market supply requires three key numbers:

• Active Listings: Homes currently for sale. Mid-year inventory is up 8% from spring, easing buyer competition.

• Pending Sales: Contracts signed but not yet closed. Pending counts rose 5% in Almaden, signaling serious buyer demand.

• Contingent Listings: Offers accepted but subject to inspections, appraisals, or financing. About 12% of Silver Creek listings are contingent—slightly above the metro average.

A rising active-to-pending ratio indicates cooling prices, while a low ratio shows a seller’s market. Evergreen’s ratio is 1.8 active for every pending, compared to 1.2 in Almaden, implying more price pressure in Evergreen.

How to apply: Watch weekly reports from your realtor. If active listings climb faster than pendings, negotiate more aggressively as a buyer, or price competitively as a seller.

3. Neighborhood Snapshots: Evergreen (95123), Almaden & Silver Creek

Evergreen (95123)

• Median Price: $1.48 million, down 1.5% year-over-year.

• ADU Potential: Many lots allow accessory dwelling units—adding rental income and boosting value by 10%.

• School Zones: Jackson Elementary’s rising test scores (+0.3 pts) add a 3% premium.

Almaden

• Median Price: $1.55 million, flat since January.

• Population Growth: Up 2% over five years—steady demand.

• Country Club Access: Almaden Valley Country Club membership remains a draw for luxury buyers.

Silver Creek/Creek Valley

• Median Condo Price: $1.27 million, down 0.5% YOY.

• HOA Fees: $720/month average—slightly rising for clubhouse upgrades.

• Dog Parks & Trails: Two new off-leash areas increased rental interest by 8%.

How to apply: Match your search or pricing strategy to each area’s nuances: ADUs in Evergreen, club perks in Almaden, and condo community updates in Silver Creek.

4. The Role of ADUs, Taxes & Buyer Programs

ADUs (Accessory Dwelling Units)

• Permitted on many Evergreen lots, ADUs can add $50K–$100K in value and generate $2,500/month rent.

• Silver Creek condos can’t add ADUs, making single-family homes comparatively more attractive.

Property Taxes

• San Jose’s base rate is ~1.18%. New assessments can push taxes up 0.1–0.2% annually.

• High-tax areas like Almaden see small price dips when new bonds pass; plan for tax forecasts.

Buyer Programs

• First-time buyer programs (CalHFA, county grants) help with down payment in Evergreen and Almaden.

• Veteran and physician loan programs offer 0% down—beneficial in higher-cost Silver Creek.

How to apply: Factor ADU value and tax increases into your offer. If you qualify for a buyer program, work with your realtor early to lock in benefits.

5. Rent vs. Buy: Which Makes Sense Now?

Rising rents can justify buying even if prices dip slightly.

• Average Rent: $4,600/month in Evergreen single-family homes; $3,800 for Silver Creek condos.

• Rent-to-Price Ratio: A house at $1.48 million renting at $4,600 yields 3.7% gross—close to cap-rate investors seek.

• Mortgage vs. Rent: With 20% down on a median home, monthly mortgage plus tax/insurance can be similar to rent, locking in equity.

How to apply: Compare your local rent vs. buy calculator with current interest rates. If your mortgage payment is within 5% of rent, buying may be smarter long-term.

6. Market Forecast & Trends into Late 2025

Analysts predict:

• Modest Price Growth: 1–2% appreciation by December as rates stabilize near 5%.

• Inventory Stabilization: Active listings hold steady, with few new builds entering until late 2026.

• Buyer Demand: Remains strong for homes under $1.5 million—entry-level and mid-range markets will pick up first.

Potential wildcards:

• A rate cut in Q1 2026 could boost spring 2026 prices by 3–4%.

• New zoning changes for ADUs could make Evergreen more competitive.

How to apply: Use forecast data to time your move—consider selling in late summer to avoid year-end holiday slowdowns, or buying in early fall for less competition.

7. Making a Data-Driven Decision

1. Gather Hyperlocal Stats: Ask your realtor for block-level price-per-foot, DOM, and pending ratios.

2. Compare Average vs. Median: Understand which metric aligns with your price range.

3. Model Scenarios: Price changes of –2%, 0%, +2% and how that impacts equity.

4. Weigh Rent vs. Buy: Calculate your breakeven based on current rents and mortgage rates.

5. Plan for Taxes & Fees: Include ADU costs, HOA dues, and tax forecasts.

How to apply: Work with Block Change Real Estate to build a simple spreadsheet or interactive dashboard customized to your target areas.

Conclusion

Are home prices dropping in San Jose? The data shows slight seasonal dips—median down 2% metro-wide, 1.5% in Evergreen, flat in Almaden, and minor condo cooling in Silver Creek.

But underlying demand, ADU value, and strong fundamentals point to stability and modest growth ahead. By focusing on San Jose real estate data, both average vs. median home prices and hyperlocal trends, you’ll make informed decisions. As your data-driven realtor, Block Change Real Estate is here to turn these numbers into your next winning strategy—whether you buy, sell, or hold.